← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did +6.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -4.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.4 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$226.4k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$15k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance at 51¢) and the edge is -4.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 51% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 64% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$15.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.32M volume · 1,946 trades · since Jun 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$454.4k
Open P&L · 87 positions
−$432.5k
Closed-position win rate
88%
109 closed
Wallet age · markets
121d
196 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.7 | +6.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 64¢ | $57.8k 2.1× usual |
called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 49¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 53¢ | $24.8k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 51¢ | $20.8k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $28.1k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | MED BUY No @ 46¢ | $36.4k | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY No @ 50¢ | $44.1k | excluded |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xd86ec82a0da8c70d6c12ae06f2990b89bdca45ce"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xd86ec82a0da8c70d6c12ae06f2990b89bdca45ce.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd86ec8…