Weekly report card
Week 2026-40
Sep 28, 00:00 EDT – Oct 04, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-4.8 pts
Called
95/178
Expected from price
103.5
Std. error
±3.2
In week 2026-40, 178 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 95 times; entry prices implied 103.5. Whales did no better than the price (-4.8 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 114 | 55 | 62.3 | -6.4 pts |
| Other | 39 | 31 | 28.6 | +6.0 pts |
| Politics | 24 | 8 | 11.7 | -15.2 pts |
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.2 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | HIGH BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 69¢ | $1.17M | missed |
 Colts vs. Commanders | HIGH BUY Colts @ 66¢ | $277.2k | called |
| Patriots vs. Bills | MED BUY Bills @ 74¢ | $228.8k 5.5× usual |
missed |
| Eagles vs. Bears | MED BUY Eagles @ 66¢ | $200.0k 3.8× usual |
missed |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | MED BUY 49ers @ 58¢ | $178.4k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | MED BUY Cardinals @ 56¢ | $161.3k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | MED BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $139.2k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Bills | HIGH BUY Patriots @ 26¢ | $135.1k 2.8× usual |
called |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | MED BUY Bears @ 51¢ | $135.0k 4.1× usual |
called |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | MED BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 66¢ | $131.9k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | MED BUY Jets @ 50¢ | $130.5k | missed |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | MED BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 68¢ | $127.4k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Bengals (-2.5) | MED BUY Jaguars @ 49¢ | $127.0k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Lions vs. Panthers | MED BUY Lions @ 66¢ | $119.4k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | HIGH BUY Cowboys @ 42¢ | $114.9k | called |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | MED BUY Bears @ 52¢ | $107.9k | called |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | MED BUY Bears @ 52¢ | $104.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $99.8k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 68¢ | $98.6k | called |
| Lions vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Lions @ 66¢ | $97.9k | missed |
| Eagles vs. Bears | MED BUY Bears @ 35¢ | $92.0k | called |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $85.3k | missed |
| Spread: Texans (-2.5) | MED BUY Texans @ 52¢ | $82.9k | missed |
| Steelers vs. Browns | LOW BUY Steelers @ 58¢ | $75.4k | missed |
 Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | MED BUY No @ 94.6¢ | $70.5k 3.3× usual |
called |
| Rams vs. Eagles | MED BUY Eagles @ 37¢ | $70.1k | missed |
| Eagles vs. Bears | MED BUY Bears @ 36¢ | $67.9k | called |
 Will France win on 2026-09-28? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $67.8k | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $66.2k | called |
| Rams vs. Eagles | LOW BUY Rams @ 63¢ | $63.0k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-09-28? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $59.1k | missed |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Jets @ 51¢ | $50.9k | missed |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-09-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $46.8k | called |
 Valorant: Global Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B | MED BUY Global Esports @ 73¢ | $46.5k | called |
| Spread: Texans (-2.5) | MED BUY Cowboys @ 47¢ | $45.6k | called |
| Rams vs. Eagles | LOW BUY Eagles @ 36¢ | $45.5k | missed |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-09-28? | MED BUY No @ 52¢ | $44.9k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Bills | LOW BUY Bills @ 74¢ | $43.7k | missed |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | MED BUY Giants @ 43¢ | $42.8k | called |
| Valorant: Global Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B | MED BUY Global Esports @ 73¢ | $42.5k | called |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | LOW BUY Giants @ 44¢ | $41.8k 2.2× usual |
called |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 91.2¢ | $41.0k | called |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 66¢ | $40.9k | missed |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 59¢ | $39.7k | missed |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Bears @ 50¢ | $39.1k | called |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | MED BUY No @ 90¢ | $38.4k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Colts @ 64¢ | $38.3k | called |
| Rams vs. Eagles | MED BUY Rams @ 64¢ | $35.8k | called |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 67¢ | $35.5k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C | LOW BUY Team Liquid @ 79¢ | $35.5k | called |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | MED BUY No @ 95¢ | $34.7k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $34.4k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $34.3k | called |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 68¢ | $34.0k | called |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 68¢ | $34.0k | called |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 57¢ | $32.6k | missed |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 67¢ | $32.3k | called |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Bears @ 35¢ | $32.1k | called |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Jets @ 51¢ | $31.9k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Steelers vs. Browns | LOW BUY Steelers @ 57¢ | $29.6k | missed |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | LOW BUY Jaguars @ 43¢ | $29.5k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-09-28? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $28.9k | missed |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $28.7k | called |
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | MED SELL No @ 93¢ | $27.9k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $27.2k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Bills | MED BUY Patriots @ 27¢ | $27.0k | called |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-09-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $27.0k | called |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 65¢ | $26.4k | missed |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | LOW BUY Bears @ 49¢ | $25.0k | called |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $24.8k | called |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 92.5¢ | $24.1k | missed |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | LOW BUY Eagles @ 48¢ | $24.0k | missed |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ | $23.9k | called |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $23.3k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 12¢ | $22.9k | missed |
| Spread: Bengals (-2.5) | LOW BUY Bengals @ 51¢ | $22.5k | missed |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | LOW BUY Giants @ 45¢ | $22.5k | called |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Cowboys @ 41¢ | $22.3k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $22.2k | called |
| Patriots vs. Bills | LOW BUY Bills @ 74¢ | $22.2k | missed |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | LOW BUY Jaguars @ 44¢ | $22.0k | called |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 64¢ | $20.9k | missed |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | LOW BUY Broncos @ 41¢ | $20.9k | missed |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $20.7k | called |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | LOW BUY Eagles @ 48¢ | $20.1k | missed |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95.8¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | LOW BUY Jaguars @ 44¢ | $19.8k | called |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Colts @ 65¢ | $19.7k | called |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 95.3¢ | $19.6k | missed |
| Rams vs. Eagles | LOW BUY Rams @ 63¢ | $18.9k | called |
 Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September? | LOW BUY No @ 94.8¢ | $18.8k | called |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 94.4¢ | $18.5k | missed |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $18.5k | missed |
| Valorant: Global Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B | LOW BUY EDward Gaming @ 29¢ | $18.4k | missed |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Jets @ 51¢ | $18.2k | missed |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Colts @ 64¢ | $18.1k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-09-28? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $17.9k | missed |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 64¢ | $17.8k | missed |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $17.8k | missed |
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