← Wallets
−$1,258No · avg 95.2¢ → 93.5¢ · $66.9k+$7No · avg 35¢ → 35¢ · $507+$33No · avg 80¢ → 93¢ · $233+$7No · avg 85¢ → 91.5¢ · $107
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +8.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+8.1 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$252.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$35.1k
Last 30 days +$8,206 · $973.0k volume · 264 trades · since Dec 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$41.8k
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$6,285
Closed-position win rate
83%
59 closed
Wallet age · markets
311d
67 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 4 | 3.7 | +8.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $67.0k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $61.6k 2.5× usual |
called |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 91.2¢ | $41.0k | called |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $10.2k | called |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $30.0k | called |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW SELL No @ 98.1¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $11.5k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
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