← Wallets
+$1,050No · avg 45¢ → 50¢ · $9,642 · 0 proven with, 1 against+$1,250Yes · avg 68¢ → 80¢ · $8,050−$150Ramazan Temirov · avg 49¢ → 48¢ · $4,750+$35Lorenzo Sonego · avg 51¢ → 52¢ · $3,649+$820Katerina Siniakova · avg 60¢ → 78¢ · $3,478+$35Francisco Cerundolo · avg 60¢ → 60¢ · $2,783+$29Falcons · avg 42¢ → 42¢ · $2,445+$115Lukas Neumayer · avg 46¢ → 48¢ · $2,234
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.1 wins, so it did +27.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +22.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+27.0 pts
Called / graded
5/7
Expected from price
3.1
Flagged volume
$952.0k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$49k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Rams vs. Broncos at 46¢) and the edge is +22.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 15% · n=1
40–60¢
83% vs 49% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$202.2k
Last 30 days +$744.5k · $43.32M volume · 36,069 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$8.65M
Open P&L · 61 positions
−$177.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
272d
936 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 5 | 3.1 | +27.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Felix Balshaw | LOW BUY Corentin Moutet @ 49¢ | $11.1k | called |
 Texans vs. Jaguars | LOW BUY Jaguars @ 41¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
| Texans vs. Jaguars | LOW BUY Texans @ 59¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Lions vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Lions @ 19¢ | $17.1k | excluded |
| Lions vs. Panthers | LOW BUY Panthers @ 42¢ | $30.7k | excluded |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | MED BUY 49ers @ 58¢ | $63.6k | excluded |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Raiders @ 39¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Raiders @ 40¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Bills | MED BUY Bills @ 52¢ | $62.4k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Bills | LOW BUY Patriots @ 37¢ | $22.2k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Commanders @ 17¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Bears @ 50¢ | $39.1k | called |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Ravens @ 49¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | MED BUY Cowboys @ 60¢ | $97.5k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 46¢ | $18.4k | called |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | MED BUY Dolphins @ 15¢ | $55.3k | missed |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 46¢ | $25.6k | called |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $46.2k | excluded |
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 61¢ | $43.3k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 70¢ | $69.5k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY No @ 67¢ | $109.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY No @ 58¢ | $59.6k | missed |
| England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 47¢ | $54.3k | called |
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