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−$214Club Atlético de Madrid · avg 63¢ → 55¢ · $1,341−$74Yes · avg 83¢ → 76¢ · $925
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -12.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-12.4 pts
Called / graded
1/7
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$220.8k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$101k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-19? at 25¢) and the edge is -27.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 17% · n=2
20–40¢
25% vs 26% · n=4
40–60¢
0% vs 49% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$973.1k
Last 30 days −$243.5k · $6.61M volume · 947 trades · since Jul 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$388.4k
Open P&L · 38 positions
−$1.32M
Closed-position win rate
100%
10 closed
Wallet age · markets
102d
48 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 1 | 1.9 | -12.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-09-28? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $28.9k | missed |
 Giants vs. Rams | MED BUY Giants @ 27¢ | $52.2k 2.3× usual |
missed |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | MED BUY No @ 28¢ | $52.3k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | MED BUY No @ 28¢ | $30.4k | missed |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 25¢ | $17.0k | called |
 Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-13? | LOW BUY No @ 15¢ | $10.0k | missed |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? | LOW BUY No @ 24¢ | $14.0k | missed |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21? | LOW BUY No @ 19¢ | $16.0k | missed |
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