Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$300
Return on staked
-42.9%
Bets
1/7 won
Edge vs price
-12.4 pts ±16.3
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Aug 21, 11:02 EDTSep 27, 17:34 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-09-28? | 49¢ | missed | 27d ago |
| Giants vs. Rams | 27¢ | missed | 33d ago |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | 28¢ | missed | 34d ago |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-09-19? | 25¢ | called | 35d ago |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-13? | 15¢ | missed | 41d ago |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? | 24¢ | missed | 59d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21? | 19¢ | missed | 64d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.