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What this means. A wallet put $30.4k on No, at a price that gave it a 28% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$30.4k
BUY No @ 28¢ · 110,044 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hSports
What happened
Wallet MiltonFriedmanHongKong took No (buy) for $30.4k at an average 28¢. At that price the market implied a 28% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $30.4k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 28¢ means
28%chance the market gave
+262American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 28¢
- Implied odds
- 27.6%
- As American odds
- +262 no vig
- Size
- $30.4k
- Placed
- Sep 20, 07:21 EDT
- Market close
- Sep 20, 09:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- MiltonFriedmanHongKong
- Tx
- 0xbfb411e8…
This wallet's graded record
1/7-12.4 pts
expected 1.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -28 ptsNo price · entry 28¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.1k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $38.7k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 94¢ | $44.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $15.7k | excluded |