Flaznorp

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 8.2 wins, so it did +8.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +5.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24?+$14.2kNo · avg 46¢ → 62¢ · $53.3k Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-3.5)−$167RC Deportivo A Coruña · avg 83¢ → 82¢ · $25.2k Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?+$421No · avg 49¢ → 50¢ · $22.3k · 0 proven with, 1 against Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-24?+$1,923Yes · avg 32¢ → 36¢ · $22.2k Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-10-25?+$77No · avg 69¢ → 70¢ · $14.1k Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5+$3,757Under · avg 55¢ → 75¢ · $14.0k Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?+$0No · avg 68¢ → 68¢ · $12.0k Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score+$1,401Yes · avg 76¢ → 87¢ · $11.4k

Price-adjusted edge

+8.2 pts

Called / graded

9/10

Expected from price

8.2

Flagged volume

$2.85M

Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.4 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$35k

10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-16? at 71¢) and the edge is +5.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

40–60¢

0% vs 47% · n=1

60–80¢

100% vs 71% · n=1

80–100¢

100% vs 88% · n=8

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$939.6k

Last 30 days +$303.4k · $340.27M volume · 1,365,621 trades · since Aug 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Exact Score: Atlante FC 0 - 0 Atlético San Luis?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$50.0k 3.1× usual	100%	7h ago	excluded
Hawks vs. Hornets	LOW BUY Hawks @ 99.9¢	$10.7k	100%	11h ago	excluded
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-10-23?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$10.1k	99%	13h ago	excluded
Will Bolton Wanderers FC win on 2026-10-23?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$14.6k	100%	15h ago	excluded
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-23?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$24.9k	100%	15h ago	excluded
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 3.5	LOW BUY Over @ 97.5¢	$10.4k	97%	16h ago	excluded
Exact Score: VfB Stuttgart 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$49.9k 3.1× usual	100%	16h ago	excluded
Will AC Monza win on 2026-10-23?	LOW BUY No @ 76¢	$10.9k	76%	16h ago	excluded
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 1.5	LOW BUY Over @ 99.9¢	$32.4k 2.0× usual	100%	17h ago	excluded
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 0.5	LOW BUY Over @ 99.9¢	$81.8k 5.2× usual	100%	17h ago	excluded
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-10-23?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$11.0k	85%	18h ago	called
Al Faisaly Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 1.5	LOW BUY Over @ 99.9¢	$99.9k 6.3× usual	100%	21h ago	excluded
CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 2.5	MED BUY Under @ 93.9¢	$26.7k	94%	1d ago	excluded
Will FC Twente win on 2026-10-22?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$10.0k	100%	1d ago	excluded
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 0.5	LOW BUY Over @ 94¢	$11.8k	94%	1d ago	excluded
Will MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-10-22?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$11.6k	100%	1d ago	excluded
Juventus FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 5.5	LOW BUY Under @ 80¢	$16.9k	80%	1d ago	excluded
Juventus FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 0.5	LOW BUY Over @ 99.9¢	$16.9k	100%	1d ago	excluded
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-10-22?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$19.0k	100%	1d ago	excluded
European Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Zizou Bergs	LOW BUY Zizou Bergs @ 88¢	$10.0k	88%	1d ago	excluded
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-10-22?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$35.4k 2.2× usual	100%	1d ago	excluded
AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: O/U 0.5	LOW BUY Over @ 94¢	$13.2k	94%	2d ago	called
Kings vs. Clippers	LOW BUY Clippers @ 99.3¢	$44.9k 2.8× usual	99%	2d ago	excluded
Warriors vs. Lakers	LOW BUY Lakers @ 99.9¢	$32.3k 2.0× usual	100%	2d ago	excluded
Will CF América win on 2026-10-21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$31.3k	99%	2d ago	excluded
Mavericks vs. Rockets	LOW BUY Rockets @ 99.9¢	$11.6k	100%	2d ago	excluded
Lyon Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tommy Paul	LOW BUY Tommy Paul @ 94¢	$11.7k	94%	2d ago	excluded
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?	MED BUY No @ 81¢	$45.7k 2.9× usual	81%	2d ago	excluded
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$20.5k	78%	2d ago	excluded
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?	MED BUY Yes @ 72¢	$38.4k 2.4× usual	72%	2d ago	excluded
Will Levante UD win on 2026-09-16?	LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢	$14.7k	82%	2d ago	excluded
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5	LOW BUY Over @ 52¢	$12.8k	52%	2d ago	excluded
Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-21?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$25.5k	91%	2d ago	excluded
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢	$11.3k	92%	2d ago	excluded
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-21?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$11.2k	92%	2d ago	called
Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-21?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$16.0k	91%	2d ago	called
Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-21?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$13.1k	92%	2d ago	called
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Viking FK end in a draw?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$10.4k	86%	2d ago	called
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 0.5	LOW BUY Over @ 99.9¢	$20.0k	100%	3d ago	excluded
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-10-20?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$10.8k	87%	3d ago	excluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20?	MED BUY Yes @ 75¢	$52.6k 3.3× usual	75%	3d ago	excluded
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20?	MED BUY No @ 86¢	$161.9k 10.2× usual	86%	3d ago	excluded
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-20?	LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢	$10.1k	87%	3d ago	excluded
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-20?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$10.6k	78%	3d ago	excluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	LOW BUY No @ 70¢	$11.0k	70%	3d ago	excluded
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. NEOM SC: O/U 0.5	LOW BUY Over @ 99.9¢	$34.4k 2.2× usual	100%	3d ago	excluded
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 7.5	LOW BUY Under @ 91¢	$15.0k	91%	3d ago	excluded
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5	LOW BUY Over @ 93¢	$15.8k	93%	3d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	MED BUY Yes @ 91¢	$30.3k	91%	5d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢	$11.1k	63%	5d ago	excluded
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)	LOW BUY FC Barcelona @ 92¢	$11.6k	92%	6d ago	excluded
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$10.2k	99%	6d ago	excluded
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢	$19.3k	89%	9d ago	excluded
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$70.7k 4.5× usual	100%	9d ago	excluded
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14?	LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢	$19.2k	97%	9d ago	excluded
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	LOW BUY No @ 54¢	$24.8k	54%	9d ago	excluded
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢	$13.2k	50%	9d ago	called
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14?	LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢	$16.5k	47%	10d ago	missed
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.7¢	$82.6k 5.2× usual	97%	17d ago	excluded
Will England win on 2026-10-06?	LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢	$12.9k	85%	17d ago	excluded
Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$28.6k	78%	17d ago	excluded
China Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea	LOW BUY Hubert Hurkacz @ 98¢	$15.2k	98%	21d ago	excluded
Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?	MED BUY No @ 83¢	$25.7k	83%	27d ago	excluded
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$11.1k	87%	33d ago	excluded
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-20?	LOW BUY No @ 51¢	$10.8k	51%	33d ago	excluded
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?	MED BUY Yes @ 94¢	$44.9k 2.8× usual	94%	33d ago	excluded
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20?	MED BUY No @ 65¢	$45.4k 2.9× usual	65%	33d ago	excluded
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$17.7k	71%	33d ago	excluded
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18?	MED BUY No @ 62¢	$48.3k 3.0× usual	62%	35d ago	excluded
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?	MED BUY No @ 34¢	$50.7k 3.2× usual	34%	36d ago	excluded
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$10.8k	59%	37d ago	called
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$156.7k 9.9× usual	100%	37d ago	excluded
Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$12.9k	80%	37d ago	excluded
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-16?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢	$10.9k	98%	37d ago	excluded
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-16?	LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢	$10.6k	71%	37d ago	called
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?	LOW BUY No @ 45¢	$22.5k	45%	38d ago	excluded
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-14?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$13.0k	80%	40d ago	called
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton	LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 76¢	$11.2k	76%	40d ago	excluded
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-13?	LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢	$10.3k	91%	40d ago	excluded
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13?	LOW BUY No @ 47¢	$10.3k	47%	41d ago	missed
US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina	LOW BUY Elena Rybakina @ 98¢	$11.5k	98%	41d ago	excluded
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-09-11?	LOW BUY No @ 49¢	$13.0k	49%	42d ago	excluded
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-09?	LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢	$17.5k	83%	44d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09?	LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢	$11.1k	85%	44d ago	excluded
US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff	LOW BUY Coco Gauff @ 98¢	$16.0k	98%	44d ago	excluded
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09?	LOW BUY No @ 44¢	$11.7k	44%	44d ago	excluded
US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff	LOW BUY Mirra Andreeva @ 61¢	$11.6k	61%	44d ago	excluded
US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff	LOW BUY Coco Gauff @ 54¢	$10.5k	54%	44d ago	excluded
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-09-09?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$41.5k 2.6× usual	78%	44d ago	excluded
US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz	LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 68¢	$12.7k	68%	45d ago	excluded
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?	MED BUY Yes @ 92.2¢	$29.9k	92%	45d ago	excluded
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-09-08?	LOW BUY No @ 62¢	$14.3k	62%	45d ago	excluded
US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp	LOW BUY Botic van de Zandschulp @ 82¢	$36.6k 2.3× usual	82%	46d ago	excluded
US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien	MED BUY Learner Tien @ 48¢	$31.0k	48%	46d ago	excluded
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	MED BUY No @ 50¢	$69.1k 4.4× usual	50%	47d ago	excluded
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo	LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 96.2¢	$12.6k	96%	48d ago	excluded
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-09-05?	LOW BUY No @ 59¢	$11.1k	59%	48d ago	excluded
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-09-04?	LOW BUY No @ 98¢	$27.2k	98%	49d ago	excluded
US Open WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez	LOW BUY Jessica Pegula @ 97.9¢	$13.6k	98%	49d ago	excluded
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.8¢	$55.7k 3.5× usual	99%	56d ago	excluded
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27?	LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢	$22.3k	90%	57d ago	excluded
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27?	LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢	$20.5k	79%	57d ago	excluded
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27?	MED BUY Yes @ 80¢	$119.8k 7.5× usual	80%	57d ago	called
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26?	MED BUY Yes @ 87¢	$70.0k 4.4× usual	87%	58d ago	excluded

Flaznorp

Current positions

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

By category

History

Share this record