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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -52.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-52.4 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$817.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$562.7k
Last 30 days −$286.8k · $16.27M volume · 1,392 trades · since Sep 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.64M
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$721
Closed-position win rate
53%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
51d
551 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -52.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 China Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Arthur Gea | MED BUY Arthur Gea @ 51¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
 Steelers vs. Browns | LOW BUY Browns @ 41¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
 Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $18.5k | missed |
| Spread: Rams (-3.5) | MED BUY 49ers @ 50¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Rams | MED BUY 49ers @ 36¢ | $30.9k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx | LOW BUY Alexander Blockx @ 38¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
 US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff | LOW BUY Coco Gauff @ 47¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | MED BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 77¢ | $198.8k 6.6× usual |
excluded |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | MED BUY Ben Shelton @ 24¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | LOW BUY Alex Michelsen @ 60¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
 Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $42.2k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | MED BUY Alex Michelsen @ 45¢ | $44.0k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien | LOW BUY Learner Tien @ 48¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp | LOW BUY Botic van de Zandschulp @ 51¢ | $45.3k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien | LOW BUY Learner Tien @ 60¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien | MED BUY Learner Tien @ 61¢ | $73.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp | MED BUY Botic van de Zandschulp @ 61¢ | $56.9k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx | MED BUY Alexander Blockx @ 49¢ | $85.9k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
 St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 73¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
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