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What this means. A wallet put $18.5k on No, at a price that gave it a 52% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$18.5k
BUY No @ 52¢ · 35,350 shares
Size ≥ $10kSports
What happened
Wallet 0x78be…bde0 took No (buy) for $18.5k at an average 52¢. At that price the market implied a 52% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $18.5k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 52¢ means
52%chance the market gave
−110American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 52¢
- Implied odds
- 52.4%
- As American odds
- −110 no vig
- Size
- $18.5k
- Placed
- Oct 01, 12:56 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 01, 14:45 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x78be…bde0
- Tx
- 0xd22fab4a…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-52.4 pts
expected 0.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -52 ptsNo price · entry 52¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.83M | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $47.2k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $977.5k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | MED BUY No @ 49¢ | $35.0k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | MED BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $70.1k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $17.7k | excluded |