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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -65.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-65.7 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$17.66M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$677.1k
Last 30 days +$1.29M · $24.79M volume · 711 trades · since Sep 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$3.49M
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$4.11M
Closed-position win rate
100%
4 closed
Wallet age · markets
31d
7 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.3 | -65.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | HIGH BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 69¢ | $1.17M | missed |
 Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.19M | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $695.6k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.83M | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $976.2k | called |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $1.83M | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $977.5k | excluded |
| Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-09-26? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $904.6k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-09-24? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $4.17M 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-09-24? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $2.59M 2.2× usual |
called |
| Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers | HIGH BUY Detroit Tigers @ 63¢ | $1.32M | missed |
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