predictionlegend

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -47.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-24?−$127Yes · avg 56¢ → 56¢ · $14.1k Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5+$108Over · avg 55¢ → 56¢ · $12.0k

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge

-47.3 pts

Called / graded

0/3

Expected from price

1.4

Flagged volume

$264.4k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$369.4k

Last 30 days −$273.0k · $5.71M volume · 4,188 trades · since Aug 11, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$1.24M

Open P&L · 66 positions

−$1.58M

Closed-position win rate

100%

45 closed

Wallet age · markets

74d

110 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	0	1.4	-47.3 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-24?	LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢	$14.3k	56%	20m ago	pending
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?	MED BUY No @ 46¢	$75.4k 2.6× usual	46%	10d ago	excluded
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?	MED BUY No @ 49¢	$35.0k	49%	22d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-09-28?	LOW BUY No @ 51¢	$17.9k	51%	25d ago	missed
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24?	MED BUY No @ 50¢	$99.4k 3.5× usual	50%	60d ago	missed
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-24?	LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢	$22.4k	41%	60d ago	missed

Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-24?pending

BUY Yes @ 56¢$14.3k

LOW predictionlegend · 20m ago

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?excluded

BUY No @ 46¢$75.4k

MED predictionlegend · 10d ago

Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?excluded

BUY No @ 49¢$35.0k

MED predictionlegend · 22d ago

Will France win on 2026-09-28?missed

BUY No @ 51¢$17.9k

LOW predictionlegend · 25d ago

Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24?missed

BUY No @ 50¢$99.4k

MED predictionlegend · 60d ago

Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-24?missed

BUY Yes @ 41¢$22.4k

LOW predictionlegend · 60d ago

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