What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +40.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +36.6 pts. Information, not advice.How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+40.3 pts
Called / graded
5/6
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$1.13M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$116k
6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala at 41¢) and the edge is +36.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
83% vs 43% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$173.5k
Last 30 days +$119.3k · $27.88M volume · 11,073 trades · since Jun 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
