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What this means. A wallet put $44.0k on Alex Michelsen, at a price that gave it a 45% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$44.0k
BUY Alex Michelsen @ 45¢ · 98,206 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)Sports
What happened
Wallet 0x78be…bde0 took Alex Michelsen (buy) for $44.0k at an average 45¢. At that price the market implied a 45% chance for that side. The market resolved Frances Tiafoe. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $44.0k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 45¢ means
45%chance the market gave
+123American odds
$1.00paid per share if Alex Michelsen wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 45¢
- Implied odds
- 44.8%
- As American odds
- +123 no vig
- Size
- $44.0k
- Placed
- Sep 08, 14:37 EDT
- Market close
- Sep 08, 14:25 EDT
- Result
- Frances Tiafoe
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- 0x78be…bde0
- Tx
- 0x482a3d81…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-52.4 pts
expected 0.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -45 ptsAlex Michelsen price · entry 45¢ · resolved Frances Tiafoe
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | MED SELL Frances Tiafoe @ 99.9¢ | $251.5k 6.7× usual |
excluded |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | LOW SELL Frances Tiafoe @ 99.9¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | LOW SELL Frances Tiafoe @ 99.9¢ | $48.3k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | LOW SELL Frances Tiafoe @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | LOW SELL Frances Tiafoe @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | LOW BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 54¢ | $18.5k | excluded |