taylorsversion

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did -28.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Sharks vs. Bruins+$235Bruins · avg 65¢ → 66¢ · $30.7k Ducks vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5+$39Under · avg 47¢ → 48¢ · $3,665 Red Wings vs. Flames+$37Flames · avg 43¢ → 44¢ · $3,227 Ducks vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5+$10Under · avg 58¢ → 58¢ · $1,183

Price-adjusted edge

-28.0 pts

Called / graded

2/7

Expected from price

4.0

Flagged volume

$599.9k

Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$360k

7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Predators vs. Bruins at 58¢) and the edge is -39.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

40–60¢

20% vs 55% · n=5

60–80¢

50% vs 60% · n=2

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$898.5k

Last 30 days −$753.4k · $11.47M volume · 8,901 trades · since Apr 13, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$2.00M

Open P&L · 96 positions

−$2.90M

Closed-position win rate

92%

121 closed

Wallet age · markets

194d

211 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	7	2	4.0	-28.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Predators vs. Bruins	LOW BUY Bruins @ 58¢	$11.6k	58%	1d ago	called
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets	LOW BUY Blue Jackets @ 60¢	$14.4k	60%	3d ago	missed
Cowboys vs. Packers	MED BUY Cowboys @ 51¢	$112.4k	51%	5d ago	missed
Cowboys vs. Texans	MED BUY Texans @ 58¢	$139.2k	58%	19d ago	missed
Spread: Bears (-3.5)	MED BUY Jets @ 50¢	$130.5k	50%	20d ago	missed
Commanders vs. Cowboys	MED BUY Cowboys @ 66¢	$118.1k	66%	33d ago	excluded
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 59¢	$12.9k	59%	143d ago	missed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	LOW BUY No @ 60¢	$60.7k	60%	147d ago	called

Predators vs. Bruinscalled

BUY Bruins @ 58¢$11.6k

LOW taylorsversion · 1d ago

Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jacketsmissed

BUY Blue Jackets @ 60¢$14.4k

LOW taylorsversion · 3d ago

Cowboys vs. Packersmissed

BUY Cowboys @ 51¢$112.4k

MED taylorsversion · 5d ago

Cowboys vs. Texansmissed

BUY Texans @ 58¢$139.2k

MED taylorsversion · 19d ago

Spread: Bears (-3.5)missed

BUY Jets @ 50¢$130.5k

MED taylorsversion · 20d ago

Commanders vs. Cowboysexcluded

BUY Cowboys @ 66¢$118.1k

MED taylorsversion · 33d ago

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?missed

BUY No @ 59¢$12.9k

LOW taylorsversion · 143d ago

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?called

BUY No @ 60¢$60.7k

LOW taylorsversion · 147d ago

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