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What this means. A wallet put $50.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 77% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$50.0k
BUY Yes @ 77¢ · 64,991 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)Fresh walletPolitics
What happened
Wallet Lula20262026 took Yes (buy) for $50.0k at an average 77¢. At that price the market implied a 77% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $50.0k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 77¢ means
77%chance the market gave
−334American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 77¢
- Implied odds
- 76.9%
- Size
- $50.0k
- Placed
- Oct 02, 14:30 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 04, 23:40 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Lula20262026
- Tx
- 0xbfc80a6a…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-76.9 pts
expected 0.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -77 ptsYes price · entry 77¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $31.6k | excluded |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | MED BUY No @ 94.6¢ | $70.5k 3.3× usual |
called |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 94.4¢ | $18.5k | missed |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | MED BUY No @ 90¢ | $38.4k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $11.5k | called |