← Wallets
−$37No · avg 38¢ → 24¢ · $63−$14No · avg 52¢ → 38¢ · $38
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -46.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-46.6 pts
Called / graded
0/5
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$105.8k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$95k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? at 38¢) and the edge is -48.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 38% · n=2
40–60¢
0% vs 52% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$122.0k
Last 30 days −$67.3k · $910.7k volume · 712 trades · since Aug 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$19.0k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$137.4k
Closed-position win rate
48%
21 closed
Wallet age · markets
83d
34 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 0 | 2.3 | -46.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $27.2k | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $11.4k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $27.3k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $17.9k | missed |
 Will Sporting CP win on 2026-09-09? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
 Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22? | LOW BUY No @ 54¢ | $11.3k | missed |
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