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+$489No · avg 67¢ → 68¢ · $65.9k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 14 of 23. The prices it paid implied about 10.4 wins, so it did +15.5 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+15.5 pts over 23 bets). Without its single best bet: +13.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+15.5 pts
Called / graded
14/23
Expected from price
10.4
Flagged volume
$2.33M
Sample size23 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$659k23 graded bets in the order they resolved · 14 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Vikings vs. Bears at 34¢) and the edge is +13.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
29% vs 33% · n=7
40–60¢
79% vs 48% · n=14
60–80¢
50% vs 68% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3.08M
Last 30 days +$866.0k · $44.27M volume · 45,815 trades · since Jun 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$9.19M
Open P&L · 173 positions
−$6.09M
Closed-position win rate
93%
235 closed
Wallet age · markets
137d
407 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 23 | 14 | 10.4 | +15.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Bears (-2.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 46¢ | $119.5k | missed |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-13? | MED BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $127.9k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars | HIGH BUY Eagles @ 23¢ | $142.0k | missed |
| Falcons vs. Saints | MED BUY Saints @ 53¢ | $27.9k | missed |
| Falcons vs. Saints | MED BUY Saints @ 53¢ | $91.2k | missed |
| Falcons vs. Saints | HIGH BUY Falcons @ 48¢ | $103.9k | called |
| Spread: Bengals (-2.5) | MED BUY Jaguars @ 49¢ | $127.0k | called |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | HIGH BUY Cowboys @ 42¢ | $114.9k | called |
| Spread: Texans (-2.5) | MED BUY Cowboys @ 47¢ | $45.6k | called |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | MED BUY 49ers @ 58¢ | $178.4k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Rams vs. Eagles | MED BUY Eagles @ 37¢ | $70.1k | missed |
| Raiders vs. Saints | MED BUY Saints @ 63¢ | $125.8k | excluded |
| Packers vs. Jets | MED BUY Jets @ 39¢ | $29.2k | missed |
| Eagles vs. Titans | HIGH BUY Titans @ 26¢ | $98.5k | missed |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? | MED BUY No @ 57¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Bears | HIGH BUY Vikings @ 34¢ | $130.5k | called |
 LSU vs. Ole Miss | LOW BUY Ole Miss @ 42¢ | $21.4k | called |
| LSU vs. Ole Miss | MED BUY Ole Miss @ 42¢ | $28.3k | called |
| 49ers vs. Rams | LOW BUY 49ers @ 35¢ | $21.2k | called |
| Spread: Rams (-3.5) | MED BUY 49ers @ 49¢ | $89.9k | called |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-30? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $17.9k | missed |
 Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $247.5k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 68¢ | $84.6k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY No @ 42¢ | $34.6k | excluded |
| Spread: England (-1.5) | LOW BUY Croatia @ 69¢ | $16.5k | missed |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 | MED BUY Under @ 55¢ | $106.2k | missed |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $47.0k | called |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $16.6k | called |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $11.5k | called |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $13.8k | missed |
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