← Wallets
+$1,017No · avg 80¢ → 82¢ · $54.1k+$15.3kNo · avg 50¢ → 80¢ · $41.3k+$6,025No · avg 80¢ → 94.5¢ · $38.0k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$2,277No · avg 79¢ → 86¢ · $26.9k+$2,662No · avg 88¢ → 98¢ · $25.7k+$3,150No · avg 76¢ → 88¢ · $23.0k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$106Yes · avg 93¢ → 93.5¢ · $21.5k+$560Yes · avg 90¢ → 92.8¢ · $18.2k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 4.5 wins, so it did +8.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +7.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+8.4 pts
Called / graded
5/6
Expected from price
4.5
Flagged volume
$233.9k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$2k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? at 85¢) and the edge is +7.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 5% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 89% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$308.4k
Last 30 days +$35.0k · $10.00M volume · 18,634 trades · since Nov 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.07M
Open P&L · 85 positions
−$12.4k
Closed-position win rate
87%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
713d
650 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 6 | 5 | 4.5 | +8.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $17.8k | called |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $28.7k | called |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 95¢ | $11.1k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $17.2k | excluded |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $79.8k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $16.0k | called |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $17.7k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 94.5¢ | $18.9k | called |
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