Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$37
Return on staked
-6.1%
Bets
5/6 won
Edge vs price
+8.4 pts ±12.2
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 04, 15:17 ESTOct 05, 05:34 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | 89¢ | called | 19d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | 85¢ | called | 46d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | 5¢ | missed | 68d ago |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 91¢ | called | 174d ago |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 85¢ | called | 185d ago |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | 94¢ | called | 234d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.