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−$0Over · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $5
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did -2.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-2.0 pts
Called / graded
4/9
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$754.3k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$8k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Eagles vs. Bears at 36¢) and the edge is -10.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
33% vs 34% · n=3
40–60¢
40% vs 50% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 67% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3.44M
Last 30 days +$678.2k · $47.56M volume · 12,064 trades · since Aug 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$11.92M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$7.70M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
427d
2689 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 4 | 4.2 | -2.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cowboys vs. Packers | LOW BUY Packers @ 49¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Eagles | LOW BUY Rams @ 63¢ | $50.4k | excluded |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 67¢ | $32.3k | called |
 San Jose State vs. Hawai'i | LOW BUY San Jose State @ 43¢ | $55.2k | excluded |
| Steelers vs. Browns | LOW BUY Steelers @ 58¢ | $75.4k | missed |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | MED BUY Bears @ 52¢ | $104.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Eagles vs. Bears | MED BUY Bears @ 36¢ | $67.9k | called |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Falcons @ 43¢ | $29.1k | missed |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW BUY Connecticut Huskies @ 57¢ | $50.9k | excluded |
| Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) | LOW BUY St. Johns Red Storm @ 51¢ | $21.9k | called |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 44¢ | $26.2k | excluded |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 54¢ | $64.2k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 34¢ | $44.2k | missed |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Rams @ 44¢ | $58.0k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 33¢ | $54.9k | missed |
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