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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -62.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-62.7 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$325.2k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$257.7k
Last 30 days −$520.0k · $5.39M volume · 837 trades · since Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$638.8k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$896.5k
Closed-position win rate
79%
14 closed
Wallet age · markets
97d
27 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 0 | 1.9 | -62.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $85.3k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Bills | LOW BUY Bills @ 74¢ | $22.2k | missed |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | MED BUY Cardinals @ 56¢ | $161.3k 2.3× usual |
missed |
 Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 47¢ | $56.4k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x7f8e18…