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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -6.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-6.5 pts
Called / graded
0/8
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$128.8k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$129k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential at 5¢) and the edge is -6.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 6% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$362.3k
Last 30 days −$316.8k · $4.36M volume · 7,202 trades · since Oct 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$359.4k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$4,098
Closed-position win rate
62%
13 closed
Wallet age · markets
382d
10 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 8 | 0 | 0.5 | -6.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 94.8¢ | $12.2k | missed |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 94.4¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 92.5¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | MED SELL No @ 93¢ | $27.9k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 92.5¢ | $24.1k | missed |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 92.4¢ | $16.6k | missed |
 Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 95.2¢ | $12.8k | missed |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 93.5¢ | $14.3k | missed |
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