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What this means. A wallet put $12.8k on not No, at a price that gave it a 5% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$12.8k
SELL No @ 95.2¢ · 13,488 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Politics
What happened
Wallet unknwnfnd took No (sell) for $12.8k at an average 95.2¢. At that price the market implied a 5% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $12.8k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 95.2¢
- Implied odds
- 4.8%
- Size
- $12.8k
- Placed
- Feb 03, 17:55 EST
- Market close
- Oct 04, 23:59 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- unknwnfnd
- Tx
- 0xce0c4fac…
This wallet's graded record
0/8-6.5 pts
expected 0.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 93.5¢ | $14.3k | missed |
Same event on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same event, which can be on a different answer than this bet. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| YES Flávio Bolsonaro | $24.4k | 83¢ | 7h ago |
| NO Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | $12.6k | 78¢ | 11h ago |