← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $27.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 7% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$27.9k
SELL No @ 93¢ · 30,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)2.1× this wallet's usual betPolitics
What happened
Wallet unknwnfnd took No (sell) for $27.9k at an average 93¢. At that price the market implied a 7% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $27.9k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 93¢
- Implied odds
- 7.0%
- Size
- $27.9k
- Placed
- Aug 07, 07:18 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 04, 23:59 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- unknwnfnd
- Tx
- 0xa69149bb…
This wallet's graded record
0/8-6.5 pts
expected 0.5 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $62.6k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
Same event on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same event, which can be on a different answer than this bet. Kalshi's trade tape has no account id. A public nickname shows on the Kalshi flag when the social feed names that side.
| NO Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | $14.8k | 81¢ | 3m ago |
| YES Flávio Bolsonaro | $21.4k | 83¢ | 4h ago |
| NO Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | $12.4k | 83¢ | 5h ago |
| YES Flávio Bolsonaro | $24.4k | 83¢ | 15h ago |
| NO Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | $12.6k | 78¢ | 19h ago |