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+$325No · avg 94.2¢ → 94.5¢ · $89.8k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$4,780No · avg 93.8¢ → 88¢ · $67.8k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$257No · avg 82¢ → 82¢ · $63.6k−$173No · avg 82¢ → 82¢ · $60.0k+$1,145No · avg 92.5¢ → 94.5¢ · $54.7k+$4,786No · avg 86¢ → 94.5¢ · $53.6k−$20No · avg 94¢ → 94¢ · $49.8k+$434No · avg 92.7¢ → 93.5¢ · $48.7k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.7 wins, so it did +5.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +4.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.2 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.7
Flagged volume
$457.4k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$5k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? at 92¢) and the edge is +4.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 95% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$90.7k
Last 30 days +$20.9k · $10.91M volume · 9,532 trades · since Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$207.3k
Open P&L · 165 positions
−$5,127
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
178d
964 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +5.2 pts |
History
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