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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -3.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.6 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$31.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$8,489
Last 30 days −$21.8k · $889.5k volume · 2,188 trades · since Apr 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$53.9k
Open P&L · 190 positions
−$82.5k
Closed-position win rate
85%
272 closed
Wallet age · markets
181d
475 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -73.2 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.3 | +66.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $17.8k | missed |
 France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW BUY England @ 34¢ | $13.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x743fd8…