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+$412Over · avg 46¢ → 48¢ · $7,986+$392Over · avg 57¢ → 63¢ · $4,113+$155Over · avg 58¢ → 60¢ · $3,758+$258Over · avg 47¢ → 52¢ · $2,846+$72North Texas · avg 56¢ → 58¢ · $1,557
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.5 wins, so it did +18.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +13.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+18.7 pts
Called / graded
6/8
Expected from price
4.5
Flagged volume
$1.12M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$10k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (South Alabama vs. Marshall at 46¢) and the edge is +13.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
83% vs 53% · n=6
60–80¢
50% vs 66% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$476.2k
Last 30 days −$99.0k · $9.83M volume · 6,318 trades · since Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.27M
Open P&L · 44 positions
−$782.0k
Closed-position win rate
56%
384 closed
Wallet age · markets
97d
424 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 6 | 4.5 | +18.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Hawks (-2.5) | MED BUY Hawks @ 51¢ | $37.0k | called |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hawks @ 56¢ | $35.8k | called |
 New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston | LOW BUY New Mexico State @ 57¢ | $24.0k | called |
| South Alabama vs. Marshall | LOW BUY Marshall @ 46¢ | $13.2k | called |
| Spread: South Alabama (-2.5) | LOW BUY Marshall @ 51¢ | $12.0k | called |
 Cowboys vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $99.8k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Colts @ 65¢ | $19.7k | called |
 Will France win on 2026-09-28? | MED BUY No @ 56¢ | $240.1k 6.7× usual |
excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 50¢ | $148.0k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| Commanders vs. Cowboys | HIGH BUY Cowboys @ 66¢ | $477.7k 13.3× usual |
excluded |
| Vikings vs. Bears | LOW BUY Bears @ 67¢ | $10.2k | missed |
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