Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$319
Return on staked
+39.9%
Bets
6/8 won
Edge vs price
+18.7 pts ±17.4
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Sep 19, 11:57 EDTOct 23, 11:21 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Hawks (-2.5) | 51¢ | called | 22h ago |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | 56¢ | called | 22h ago |
| New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston | 57¢ | called | 2d ago |
| South Alabama vs. Marshall | 46¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Spread: South Alabama (-2.5) | 51¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | 58¢ | missed | 19d ago |
| Colts vs. Commanders | 65¢ | called | 21d ago |
| Vikings vs. Bears | 67¢ | missed | 34d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.