← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.7 wins, so it did +36.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +33.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+36.5 pts
Called / graded
8/9
Expected from price
4.7
Flagged volume
$3.87M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$802k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Eagles vs. Bears at 35¢) and the edge is +33.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 32% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 50% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$3.11M
Last 30 days −$1.89M · $49.96M volume · 26,653 trades · since Oct 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$3.11M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
50%
165 closed
Wallet age · markets
369d
164 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 8 | 4.4 | +44.8 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -29.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Falcons vs. Saints | LOW BUY Falcons @ 47¢ | $87.1k | called |
| Rams vs. Eagles | MED BUY Eagles @ 38¢ | $184.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Jets @ 51¢ | $55.7k | excluded |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | MED BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $250.1k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Bears | MED BUY Bears @ 35¢ | $92.0k | called |
| Rams vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 48¢ | $208.1k | called |
| Spread: Rams (-2.5) | LOW BUY Broncos @ 53¢ | $50.8k | called |
| Giants vs. Rams | MED BUY Rams @ 72¢ | $390.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Commanders vs. Cowboys | HIGH BUY Cowboys @ 66¢ | $356.5k | called |
 Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $121.5k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 54¢ | $35.9k | called |
 Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Spurs @ 65¢ | $15.8k | called |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 61¢ | $425.2k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | HIGH BUY Rockets @ 61¢ | $281.0k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | MED BUY Celtics @ 67¢ | $184.3k | excluded |
 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants | MED BUY San Francisco Giants @ 36¢ | $78.9k | excluded |
| Magic vs. 76ers | MED BUY Magic @ 49¢ | $178.3k | excluded |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | MED BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 79¢ | $371.3k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Lakers | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 55¢ | $215.1k | excluded |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | MED BUY Alcaraz @ 74¢ | $242.6k | called |
 Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 29¢ | $45.8k | missed |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x6211f97a76ed5c4b1d658f637041ac5f293db89e"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x6211f97a76ed5c4b1d658f637041ac5f293db89e.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x6211f9…