Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$621
Return on staked
+69.0%
Bets
8/9 won
Edge vs price
+36.5 pts ±16.0
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 24, 18:40 ESTOct 05, 09:48 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons vs. Saints | 47¢ | called | 19d ago |
| Eagles vs. Bears | 35¢ | called | 26d ago |
| Rams vs. Broncos | 48¢ | called | 27d ago |
| Spread: Rams (-2.5) | 53¢ | called | 27d ago |
| Commanders vs. Cowboys | 66¢ | called | 34d ago |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | 54¢ | called | 132d ago |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | 65¢ | called | 164d ago |
| Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | 74¢ | called | 265d ago |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | 29¢ | missed | 272d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.