← Wallets
−$7,390Yes · avg 85¢ → 80¢ · $111.9k+$831No · avg 85¢ → 86¢ · $42.7k−$1,040Yes · avg 41¢ → 40¢ · $24.4k+$3,327Yes · avg 16¢ → 20¢ · $19.1k · 0 proven with, 1 against−$263No · avg 87¢ → 86¢ · $15.8k+$271No · avg 94.8¢ → 98¢ · $8,488+$1,248No · avg 79¢ → 97¢ · $6,797+$1,569No · avg 56¢ → 81¢ · $5,053
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +4.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+4.6 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$106.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$35.7k
Last 30 days −$32.6k · $5.80M volume · 6,154 trades · since Jul 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 422 closed
+$31.2k
Open P&L · 44 positions
−$1,599
Closed-position win rate
69%
422 closed
Wallet age · markets
465d
454 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.3 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 77¢ | $10.8k | pending |
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ | $23.9k | called |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $11.8k | called |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
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