← Wallets
+$11.8kYes · avg 6.3¢ → 11¢ · $26.8k−$566Yes · avg 20¢ → 20¢ · $22.1k+$1,988Yes · avg 18¢ → 21¢ · $17.5k+$1,578Yes · avg 5¢ → 5.5¢ · $17.3k−$873Yes · avg 10¢ → 9¢ · $6,550+$1,473Yes · avg 51¢ → 66¢ · $6,318 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$279No · avg 92.3¢ → 97¢ · $5,817+$313No · avg 91.4¢ → 97.7¢ · $4,882
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 6.2 wins, so it did +7.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -1.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+7.6 pts
Called / graded
7/10
Expected from price
6.2
Flagged volume
$327.4k
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$132k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? at 15¢) and the edge is -1.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 15% · n=1
20–40¢
50% vs 33% · n=2
60–80¢
75% vs 68% · n=4
80–100¢
67% vs 90% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$428.2k
Last 30 days +$62.2k · $12.85M volume · 17,067 trades · since Nov 15, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.74M
Open P&L · 281 positions
−$1.31M
Closed-position win rate
85%
320 closed
Wallet age · markets
708d
583 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.6 | +8.0 pts |
| Other | 5 | 4 | 3.6 | +7.3 pts |
History
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