What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 4.7 wins, so it did +30.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +24.9 pts. Information, not advice.How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+30.1 pts
Called / graded
8/11
Expected from price
4.7
Flagged volume
$4.84M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$482k
11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Worlds Play-In at 17¢) and the edge is +24.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
100% vs 17% · n=1
20–40¢
33% vs 33% · n=3
40–60¢
83% vs 49% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 62% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.67M
Last 30 days +$2.56M · $78.38M volume · 29,189 trades · since Aug 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
