Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$1,004
Return on staked
+91.3%
Bets
8/11 won
Edge vs price
+30.1 pts ±14.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +29.7 pts (4/5). Newer half: +30.5 pts (4/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Sep 06, 03:56 EDTOct 16, 14:02 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: FURIA Esports vs Cloud9 (BO5) - Worlds Play-In | 17¢ | called | 8d ago |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs | 32¢ | missed | 12d ago |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | 52¢ | called | 26d ago |
| Falcons vs. Packers | 30¢ | called | 31d ago |
| Panthers vs. Falcons | 44¢ | missed | 34d ago |
| Bengals vs. Texans | 42¢ | called | 34d ago |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | 49¢ | called | 43d ago |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | 48¢ | called | 44d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09? | 62¢ | called | 45d ago |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08? | 56¢ | called | 46d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs | 36¢ | missed | 48d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.