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+$5,220No · avg 80¢ → 93.5¢ · $36.1k+$1,753No · avg 85¢ → 97.8¢ · $13.5k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.8 wins, so it did +4.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +4.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+4.9 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.8
Flagged volume
$286.5k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$4k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July at 92¢) and the edge is +4.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 95% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$36.9k
Last 30 days +$9,912 · $2.30M volume · 1,032 trades · since Jan 19, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$84.4k
Open P&L · 31 positions
−$121.4k
Closed-position win rate
84%
115 closed
Wallet age · markets
278d
141 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 3 | 2.9 | +4.1 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +6.0 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x49e940…