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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.3 wins, so it did -21.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-21.7 pts
Called / graded
2/6
Expected from price
3.3
Flagged volume
$607.7k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$67k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? at 53¢) and the edge is -35.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
50% vs 51% · n=4
60–80¢
0% vs 64% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.22M
Last 30 days −$197.4k · $17.68M volume · 14,889 trades · since Mar 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 423 closed
+$1.58M
Open P&L · 269 positions
−$2.77M
Closed-position win rate
82%
423 closed
Wallet age · markets
210d
682 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 2 | 3.3 | -21.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bills vs. Rams | LOW BUY Rams @ 60¢ | $20.4k | missed |
| Spread: Texans (-2.5) | LOW BUY Texans @ 52¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | MED BUY Eagles @ 48¢ | $144.0k 6.0× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | LOW BUY Eagles @ 48¢ | $24.0k | missed |
| Giants vs. Rams | LOW BUY Rams @ 72¢ | $36.0k | excluded |
 Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $20.1k | called |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $24.0k | missed |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $43.2k | called |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $30.6k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 67¢ | $53.6k 2.2× usual |
missed |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners | LOW BUY Seattle Mariners @ 56¢ | $56.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 64¢ | $44.8k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 59¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 91¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 67¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats | LOW BUY Arizona Wildcats @ 71¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 62¢ | $30.7k | excluded |
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