← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -17.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.6 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$1.74M
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$582.3k
Last 30 days −$567.9k · $8.30M volume · 1,712 trades · since Jun 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$170.2k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$401.4k
Closed-position win rate
63%
84 closed
Wallet age · markets
136d
98 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.7 | -17.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bills vs. Rams | LOW BUY Rams @ 62¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Falcons | LOW SELL Ravens @ 34¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Ravens @ 50¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | LOW SELL 49ers @ 99.9¢ | $27.9k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY 49ers @ 70¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
 UCLA vs. Oregon | LOW BUY Oregon @ 53¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Cowboys @ 81¢ | $49.4k | missed |
| Falcons vs. Saints | LOW SELL Falcons @ 99.9¢ | $49.0k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Saints | LOW BUY Falcons @ 90¢ | $44.1k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Saints | MED SELL Falcons @ 67¢ | $44.2k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Saints | LOW BUY Falcons @ 67¢ | $44.2k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Eagles | LOW BUY Rams @ 64¢ | $16.8k | called |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 66¢ | $40.9k | missed |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Rams @ 67¢ | $67.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
 Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers | LOW SELL Washington Nationals @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers | LOW BUY Washington Nationals @ 88¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Giants vs. Rams | LOW SELL Rams @ 99.9¢ | $96.6k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Giants vs. Rams | MED BUY Rams @ 81¢ | $78.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Lions vs. Bills | LOW SELL Bills @ 99.9¢ | $85.6k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Lions vs. Bills | LOW BUY Bills @ 69¢ | $54.6k | called |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $17.0k | called |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $28.3k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | LOW SELL Yes @ 62¢ | $22.6k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $25.5k | missed |
| Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 | LOW SELL Under @ 53¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Under @ 75¢ | $62.7k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | MED SELL Yes @ 83¢ | $54.1k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $26.6k | called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | MED SELL Yes @ 71¢ | $52.9k | excluded |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $54.8k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | MED SELL Yes @ 72¢ | $79.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $102.1k 3.6× usual |
missed |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $102.0k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $25.5k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | MED SELL Yes @ 95.1¢ | $25.7k | excluded |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 94.5¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
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