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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did -34.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-34.8 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$1.24M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$566.7k
Last 30 days −$563.4k · $3.40M volume · 661 trades · since Jul 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$304.3k
Open P&L · 79 positions
−$852.8k
Closed-position win rate
72%
196 closed
Wallet age · markets
112d
266 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | -34.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cardinals vs. Giants | MED BUY Cardinals @ 77¢ | $200.0k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Eagles vs. Bears | MED BUY Eagles @ 66¢ | $200.0k 3.8× usual |
missed |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Rams @ 60¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | MED SELL Rams @ 74¢ | $145.0k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Rams @ 51¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Ravens @ 69¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | MED SELL Ravens @ 67¢ | $53.3k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Ravens @ 63¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Colts vs. Chiefs | MED BUY Chiefs @ 72¢ | $143.0k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Seahawks vs. Cardinals | LOW SELL Seahawks @ 65¢ | $98.5k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Cardinals | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 66¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Bears | LOW BUY Bears @ 66¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Seahawks vs. Cardinals | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 66¢ | $50.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc506cc…