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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.2 wins, so it did -4.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.7 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.2
Flagged volume
$226.3k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$295.5k
Last 30 days +$309.5k · $4.70M volume · 120 trades · since Sep 25, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.32M
Open P&L · 18 positions
−$1.03M
Closed-position win rate
100%
22 closed
Wallet age · markets
29d
40 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.2 | -4.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Falcons vs. Saints | LOW BUY Falcons @ 47¢ | $18.3k | called |
| Patriots vs. Bills | LOW BUY Bills @ 74¢ | $43.7k | missed |
| Spread: Bears (-3.5) | LOW BUY Jets @ 51¢ | $50.9k | missed |
| Rams vs. Broncos | MED BUY Broncos @ 47¢ | $113.5k 2.4× usual |
called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa90429…