← Wallets
−$114Troy · avg 84¢ → 84¢ · $19.0k−$75Miami (FL) · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $13.7k+$743Fabian Marozsan · avg 60¢ → 64¢ · $13.6k−$121Mississippi State · avg 47¢ → 46¢ · $11.3k+$108Northwestern · avg 51¢ → 52¢ · $11.1k−$102Boston College · avg 48¢ → 48¢ · $9,661−$901Under · avg 52¢ → 48¢ · $9,509−$22Mississippi State · avg 52¢ → 52¢ · $9,029
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 12 of 23. The prices it paid implied about 13.6 wins, so it did -6.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-6.7 pts over 23 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 4 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
-6.7 pts
Called / graded
12/23
Expected from price
13.6
Flagged volume
$8.41M
Sample size23 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$14k23 graded bets in the order they resolved · 12 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala at 37¢) and the edge is -9.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 38% · n=2
40–60¢
36% vs 53% · n=11
60–80¢
57% vs 64% · n=7
80–100¢
100% vs 83% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2.52M
Last 30 days +$1.46M · $1347.89M volume · 2,325,117 trades · since Mar 31, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$41.81M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$25.56M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
207d
83065 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 23 | 12 | 13.6 | -6.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOW BUY TCU @ 78¢ | $10.1k | pending | |
| LOW BUY Mississippi State @ 47¢ | $11.4k | pending | |
| LOW BUY Sebastian Baez @ 52¢ | $20.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Northwestern @ 51¢ | $11.0k | pending | |
| LOW BUY Miami (FL) @ 92¢ | $10.4k | pending | |
| LOW BUY US Sassuolo Calcio @ 58¢ | $11.5k | missed | |
| MED BUY Elena Rybakina @ 62¢ | $40.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Leylah Fernandez @ 45¢ | $23.7k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Ashlyn Krueger @ 25¢ | $38.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $11.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Air Force @ 69¢ | $22.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Wizards @ 25¢ | $12.8k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Zizou Bergs @ 44¢ | $75.3k 3.3× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Under @ 49¢ | $10.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY UConn @ 82¢ | $12.5k | called | |
| LOW BUY Over @ 50¢ | $14.2k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Bucks @ 53¢ | $22.0k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova @ 55¢ | $23.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Sara Saito @ 35¢ | $12.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Patriots @ 31¢ | $16.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Bears @ 70¢ | $46.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Estudiantes de La Plata @ 61¢ | $21.1k | called | |
| LOW BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 72¢ | $10.0k | called | |
| LOW BUY Kayla Day @ 51¢ | $11.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Viking FK @ 57¢ | $13.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Real Madrid CF @ 40¢ | $14.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $11.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Over @ 51¢ | $12.6k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Mattia Bellucci @ 54¢ | $24.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 38¢ | $12.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Knicks @ 50¢ | $32.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Delaware @ 59¢ | $13.8k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Commanders @ 10¢ | $22.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Steelers @ 83¢ | $29.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Panthers @ 69¢ | $36.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Memphis @ 69¢ | $19.9k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Broncos @ 77¢ | $335.0k 14.9× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Rams @ 47¢ | $144.2k 6.4× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Rams @ 62¢ | $13.8k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Falcons @ 71¢ | $74.3k 3.3× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Ravens @ 30¢ | $10.2k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Ravens @ 38¢ | $103.3k 4.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY 49ers @ 45¢ | $19.9k | excluded | |
| HIGH BUY Seahawks @ 30¢ | $152.7k 6.8× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Seahawks @ 56¢ | $125.8k 5.6× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Jaguars @ 77¢ | $27.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY UCLA @ 47¢ | $29.0k | excluded | |
| MED BUY UCLA @ 24¢ | $28.4k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Buccaneers @ 20¢ | $30.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Cleveland Guardians @ 52¢ | $17.0k | called | |
| MED BUY Golden State Valkyries @ 77¢ | $90.0k 4.0× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Saints @ 24¢ | $10.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Lions @ 43¢ | $29.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Panthers @ 42¢ | $16.1k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Lions @ 64¢ | $201.6k 8.9× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Chiefs @ 51¢ | $155.4k 6.9× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Eagles @ 68¢ | $93.7k 4.2× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Cardinals @ 41¢ | $26.1k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Rams @ 53¢ | $66.5k 3.0× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Rams @ 63¢ | $280.0k 12.4× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Bengals @ 51¢ | $22.5k | missed | |
| MED BUY Colts @ 61¢ | $55.8k 2.5× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY USC @ 71¢ | $168.8k 7.5× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Washington @ 42¢ | $20.7k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Washington @ 33¢ | $72.9k 3.2× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Bears @ 50¢ | $12.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Eagles @ 50¢ | $11.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Bears @ 60¢ | $47.7k 2.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Broncos @ 11¢ | $10.0k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Rams @ 75¢ | $82.5k 3.7× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Cowboys @ 55¢ | $43.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Saints @ 60¢ | $15.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Chiefs @ 93¢ | $25.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 99.5¢ | $26.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Houston Astros @ 88¢ | $12.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Athletics @ 37¢ | $14.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Falcons @ 40¢ | $55.4k 2.5× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Packers @ 77¢ | $38.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Cincinnati Reds @ 31¢ | $10.4k | called | |
| LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 64¢ | $14.6k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Chiefs @ 69¢ | $20.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Colts @ 47¢ | $27.8k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Chiefs @ 76¢ | $105.2k 4.7× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Seahawks @ 64¢ | $33.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Commanders @ 20¢ | $17.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Bears @ 54¢ | $11.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Panthers @ 86¢ | $56.6k 2.5× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Bengals @ 56¢ | $13.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Jets @ 42¢ | $31.8k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Panthers @ 68¢ | $16.8k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Bills @ 93¢ | $22.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Lions @ 50¢ | $58.0k 2.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 54¢ | $11.9k | called | |
| LOW BUY Cowboys @ 11¢ | $22.0k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Giants @ 77¢ | $66.9k 3.0× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Aryna Sabalenka @ 58¢ | $23.0k | missed | |
| LOW BUY 49ers @ 95¢ | $19.4k | excluded | |
| HIGH BUY Rams @ 66¢ | $279.7k 12.4× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Alexander Blockx @ 37¢ | $29.8k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Coco Gauff @ 54¢ | $67.1k 3.0× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 50¢ | $53.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 60¢ | $14.0k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Learner Tien @ 54¢ | $49.4k 2.2× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Arthur Gea @ 80¢ | $18.8k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Arthur Gea @ 39¢ | $10.4k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Alexander Blockx @ 59¢ | $11.5k | called | |
| LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 82¢ | $16.2k | called | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $11.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Jessica Pegula @ 84¢ | $18.3k | called | |
| LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 72¢ | $12.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 61¢ | $16.0k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Zachary Svajda @ 60¢ | $12.3k | called | |
| LOW BUY Colorado Rockies @ 50¢ | $35.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Harry Wendelken @ 43¢ | $19.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Luciano Darderi @ 74¢ | $12.2k | called | |
| MED BUY Novak Djokovic @ 54¢ | $26.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY San Francisco Giants @ 45¢ | $23.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 51¢ | $17.5k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Washington Nationals @ 77¢ | $55.7k 2.5× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Arizona Diamondbacks @ 57¢ | $64.7k 2.9× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Arizona Diamondbacks @ 50¢ | $14.2k | called | |
| MED BUY Titouan Droguet @ 60¢ | $31.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $22.0k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Taylor Fritz @ 64¢ | $75.9k 3.4× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Elena Rybakina @ 29¢ | $33.4k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Iga Swiatek @ 59¢ | $12.4k | called | |
| LOW BUY Arthur Fils @ 62¢ | $14.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Novak Djokovic @ 39¢ | $20.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Arthur Fils @ 46¢ | $26.4k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 71¢ | $27.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Liudmila Samsonova @ 51¢ | $30.0k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Luciano Darderi @ 79¢ | $46.4k 2.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Chicago Cubs @ 34¢ | $13.6k | called | |
| LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 65¢ | $15.7k | missed | |
| MED BUY Alexandra Eala @ 37¢ | $42.2k | called | |
| LOW BUY Ben Shelton @ 58¢ | $15.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Chicago White Sox @ 51¢ | $92.0k 4.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Kamil Majchrzak @ 58¢ | $10.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Tamara Korpatsch @ 33¢ | $10.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 69¢ | $30.6k | called | |
| LOW BUY Paula Badosa @ 62¢ | $13.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Vit Kopriva @ 41¢ | $23.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Argentina @ 42¢ | $14.8k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY France @ 29¢ | $22.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY England @ 50¢ | $29.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spain @ 44¢ | $29.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $12.6k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Under @ 49¢ | $43.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Over @ 34¢ | $11.2k | excluded | |
| MED BUY United States @ 52¢ | $33.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Alexandra Eala @ 37¢ | $29.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 62¢ | $97.7k 4.3× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Marie Bouzkova @ 49¢ | $28.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Mexico @ 22¢ | $10.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Under @ 21¢ | $14.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Under @ 35¢ | $15.4k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $45.6k 2.0× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $52.5k 2.3× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 32¢ | $10.3k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $18.9k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $68.8k 3.0× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $22.9k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL Team Falcons @ 99.9¢ | $80.7k 3.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $11.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $11.6k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL Team Falcons @ 99.9¢ | $83.1k 3.7× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $23.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Cincinnati Reds @ 44¢ | $13.7k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $36.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Aryna Sabalenka @ 55¢ | $13.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $13.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ | $11.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $16.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $13.7k | excluded | |
| MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $655.0k 29.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $17.4k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 65¢ | $70.1k 3.1× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 76¢ | $43.9k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 60¢ | $30.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 27¢ | $16.8k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Colorado Rockies @ 36¢ | $58.9k 2.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 86¢ | $20.8k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Thunder @ 54¢ | $41.9k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Thunder @ 86¢ | $49.6k 2.2× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Thunder @ 49¢ | $67.7k 3.0× usual |
excluded | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 48¢ | $59.7k 2.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Katerina Siniakova @ 44¢ | $22.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY New York Mets @ 35¢ | $15.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $11.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Pistons @ 44¢ | $19.5k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 53¢ | $71.1k 3.2× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 69¢ | $31.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 72¢ | $35.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Novak Djokovic @ 28¢ | $11.1k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Novak Djokovic @ 64¢ | $11.2k | missed | |
| LOW BUY Thunder @ 78¢ | $26.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Knicks @ 75¢ | $15.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $23.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Magic @ 55¢ | $11.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $20.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 94¢ | $21.1k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 51¢ | $87.3k 3.9× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Fajing Sun @ 60¢ | $29.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY New York Yankees @ 56¢ | $38.4k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Nuggets @ 40¢ | $25.2k | excluded | |
| MED BUY Spurs @ 74¢ | $84.9k 3.8× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 47¢ | $11.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 91¢ | $10.5k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $11.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Under @ 56¢ | $10.2k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Valentin Vacherot @ 72¢ | $10.7k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Michigan Wolverines @ 49¢ | $33.9k | excluded |
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