Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$401
Return on staked
-14.8%
Bets
14/27 won
Edge vs price
-8.9 pts ±9.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +2.8 pts (8/13). Newer half: -19.7 pts (6/14). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 08, 03:30 EDTOct 24, 13:48 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 2.5 | 63¢ | missed | 4h ago |
| West Virginia vs. TCU | 78¢ | missed | 7h ago |
| Spread: Northwestern (-14.5) | 51¢ | called | 8h ago |
| Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL) | 92¢ | called | 10h ago |
| Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) | 58¢ | missed | 11h ago |
| UMass vs. UConn | 82¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 | 50¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | 53¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) | 61¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka | 72¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 236.5 | 51¢ | missed | 3d ago |
| Bills vs. Rams | 62¢ | missed | 12d ago |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | 52¢ | called | 16d ago |
| Spread: Bengals (-2.5) | 51¢ | missed | 20d ago |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 54¢ | called | 38d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.