Weekly report card
Week 2026-09
Feb 23, 00:00 EST – Mar 01, 23:59 EST · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-5.2 pts
Called
196/350
Expected from price
214.1
Std. error
±2.3
In week 2026-09, 350 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 196 times; entry prices implied 214.1. Whales did no better than the price (-5.2 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 161 | 92 | 93.8 | -1.1 pts |
| Other | 113 | 50 | 66.5 | -14.6 pts |
| Crypto | 76 | 54 | 53.8 | +0.3 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
called252d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
SELLNo@ 96.3¢→Yes
$54.3k · anoin123implied 4%
called252d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
SELLNo@ 95.8¢→Yes
$10.7k · anoin123implied 4%
called247d ago
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
SELLNo@ 95.3¢→Yes
$10.1k · Rektttttttimplied 5%
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $511.1k 12.7× usual |
called |
 Spurs vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 52¢ | $220.2k 5.1× usual |
missed |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | MED BUY Pelicans @ 48¢ | $180.6k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | MED BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $176.2k 2.3× usual |
called |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $173.6k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $150.4k 5.0× usual |
called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | MED BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $126.0k | called |
| Rockets vs. Magic | MED BUY Magic @ 44¢ | $124.1k 3.5× usual |
missed |
| Nets vs. Celtics | MED BUY Celtics @ 90¢ | $121.4k 3.7× usual |
called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 43¢ | $113.2k 5.0× usual |
missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $104.8k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | MED BUY Warriors @ 53¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 68¢ | $99.4k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | MED BUY Raptors @ 55¢ | $81.3k 2.5× usual |
missed |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5AM ET | LOW BUY Up @ 50¢ | $79.7k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Heat | LOW BUY Heat @ 44¢ | $72.7k 2.0× usual |
called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $70.9k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 33¢ | $70.0k | missed |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $69.8k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Celtics vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Celtics @ 43¢ | $69.0k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Warriors @ 52¢ | $67.7k | missed |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW SELL Pelicans @ 47¢ | $67.3k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 63¢ | $64.2k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 37¢ | $63.5k 3.3× usual |
missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | MED BUY No @ 95.8¢ | $56.3k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $56.2k | called |
 Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $54.9k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | MED SELL No @ 96.3¢ | $54.3k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2PM ET | LOW BUY Up @ 50¢ | $54.1k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 31¢ | $53.9k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 90.9¢ | $50.7k | called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 41¢ | $50.5k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | MED BUY No @ 89¢ | $47.3k | called |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $46.7k | called |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | MED BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $45.6k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 68¢ | $42.9k | called |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 80¢ | $41.6k | called |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 52¢ | $40.6k | missed |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 74¢ | $40.0k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $39.8k | called |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 48¢ | $38.4k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 58¢ | $37.1k | missed |
| Nets vs. Celtics | MED BUY Nets @ 10¢ | $37.1k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 63¢ | $36.3k | missed |
| Lakers vs. Suns | MED BUY Suns @ 34¢ | $35.7k | called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢ | $35.7k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 56¢ | $35.7k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $35.4k | called |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 53¢ | $35.4k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 70¢ | $35.0k | called |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 74¢ | $34.8k | called |
 Sabres vs. Lightning | MED BUY Lightning @ 69¢ | $34.8k | missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $34.6k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $34.5k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 76¢ | $34.2k | missed |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? | LOW BUY No @ 38¢ | $34.0k | missed |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 57¢ | $33.8k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 42¢ | $33.6k | called |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 74¢ | $33.4k | called |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $33.4k | missed |
| Spread: Nuggets (-3.5) | LOW BUY Celtics @ 51¢ | $33.1k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 67¢ | $33.1k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 73¢ | $33.1k | called |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $33.0k | called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 42¢ | $32.4k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? | MED BUY No @ 46¢ | $32.2k | called |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 80¢ | $32.0k | called |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $32.0k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $32.0k | called |
| Nets vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 90¢ | $31.5k | called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $31.2k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? | MED BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $31.1k | called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $31.0k | called |
| Celtics vs. Nuggets | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 60¢ | $30.8k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $30.3k | called |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 54¢ | $30.2k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 71¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? | MED BUY No @ 96¢ | $29.4k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 33¢ | $29.0k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | MED BUY Nuggets @ 30¢ | $28.7k | missed |
 Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $28.6k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 60¢ | $28.1k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 61¢ | $27.5k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $27.2k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $26.9k | called |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 40¢ | $26.9k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $26.9k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Rockets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Rockets @ 57¢ | $26.4k | called |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 48¢ | $26.4k | called |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 95.4¢ | $26.3k | called |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | MED BUY Nuggets @ 56¢ | $26.1k | missed |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $25.7k | called |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $25.5k | missed |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | MED BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $25.5k | called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 43¢ | $25.3k | missed |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5AM ET | LOW BUY Down @ 50¢ | $25.3k | called |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2PM ET | LOW BUY Down @ 50¢ | $25.2k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $25.1k | called |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $24.8k | missed |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $24.5k | missed |
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