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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did +0.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -6.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+0.6 pts
Called / graded
4/9
Expected from price
4.0
Flagged volume
$3.69M
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$83k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? at 45¢) and the edge is -6.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 29% · n=3
40–60¢
60% vs 48% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 67% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$471.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $95.50M volume · 51,583 trades · since Jan 18, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$13.54M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
75%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
279d
567 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 9 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cavaliers vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 55¢ | $48.2k | excluded |
 UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims) | LOW SELL Tyrell Fortune @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelims) | LOW BUY Tyrell Fortune @ 54¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
 Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | MED BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 67¢ | $54.6k | excluded |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | LOW SELL Michigan State Spartans @ 66¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | MED BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 65¢ | $330.2k 10.6× usual |
excluded |
| Pelicans vs. Lakers | MED BUY Lakers @ 75¢ | $33.8k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | LOW BUY No @ 30¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | MED BUY Clippers @ 52¢ | $36.0k | excluded |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | MED BUY Clippers @ 51¢ | $190.5k 6.1× usual |
excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 43¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Wizards | MED BUY Rockets @ 90¢ | $49.5k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 43¢ | $30.4k | missed |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? | MED BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $181.1k 5.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? | LOW SELL Yes @ 71¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? | MED BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $35.5k | missed |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $18.0k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 83¢ | $145.2k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Warriors | MED BUY Lakers @ 60¢ | $137.3k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Heat | MED BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $59.0k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $115.8k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 70¢ | $17.5k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 75¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 74¢ | $111.0k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Suns | LOW BUY Lakers @ 67¢ | $16.8k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Magic | MED BUY Rockets @ 57¢ | $39.9k | excluded |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 55¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | LOW SELL Spurs @ 66¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $85.5k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 67¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 68¢ | $68.0k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW SELL Pelicans @ 47¢ | $67.3k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| 76ers vs. Pacers | LOW SELL 76ers @ 81¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Spurs @ 48¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Spurs @ 48¢ | $21.8k | called |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $600.0k 19.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $63.5k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $30.6k | called |
 Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 86¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $24.1k | excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $27.9k | called |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $31.6k | called |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $39.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $43.8k | excluded |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Patriots @ 33¢ | $13.2k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 51¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 51¢ | $12.8k | called |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 50¢ | $12.5k | called |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | LOW BUY Djokovic @ 27¢ | $20.3k | missed |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $131.5k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? | MED BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $132.8k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $10.3k | called |
| Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | MED BUY Djokovic @ 26¢ | $26.0k | missed |
| Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina | LOW BUY Rybakina @ 69¢ | $51.7k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Patriots @ 65¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $50.3k | excluded |
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