Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$132
Return on staked
-14.7%
Bets
4/9 won
Edge vs price
+0.6 pts ±16.0
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 31, 04:06 ESTMar 02, 16:54 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics vs. Bucks | 43¢ | missed | 236d ago |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | 53¢ | missed | 242d ago |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? | 45¢ | called | 249d ago |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? | 67¢ | called | 249d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | 33¢ | missed | 258d ago |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | 51¢ | called | 264d ago |
| 76ers vs. Clippers | 50¢ | called | 264d ago |
| Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | 27¢ | missed | 265d ago |
| Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | 26¢ | missed | 266d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.