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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -8.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-8.7 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$647.6k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$550.8k
Last 30 days +$2 · $19.10M volume · 6,458 trades · since Jan 30, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.29M
Open P&L · 297 positions
−$1.58M
Closed-position win rate
85%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
267d
851 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 1.3 | -8.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 48¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 52¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW BUY Lakers @ 53¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Suns | LOW SELL Suns @ 99.9¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | LOW SELL Knicks @ 99.9¢ | $38.8k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Pistons @ 57¢ | $17.1k | excluded |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | LOW BUY Knicks @ 51¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | MED BUY Clippers @ 51¢ | $51.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Lakers (-12.5) | LOW BUY Kings @ 48¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
 Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
 Elche CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 51¢ | $20.4k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Heat | LOW BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW BUY No @ 46¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 31¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
 LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner | LOW BUY Weibo Gaming @ 36¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| Spread: Hornets (-12.5) | LOW BUY Hornets @ 50¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 55¢ | $22.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Nuggets (-3.5) | LOW BUY Celtics @ 51¢ | $33.1k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 34¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | MED BUY Raptors @ 51¢ | $51.1k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 48¢ | $38.4k | called |
| Spurs vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 53¢ | $31.8k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 33¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Rockets (-7.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $80.0k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
 Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic | MED BUY Djokovic @ 27¢ | $38.0k | missed |
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