← Wallets
+$200Yes · avg 59¢ → 64¢ · $2,560+$340Yes · avg 53¢ → 64¢ · $1,984+$410Yes · avg 46¢ → 66¢ · $1,330 · 2 proven with, 0 against+$90Yes · avg 60¢ → 68¢ · $832 · 1 proven with, 0 against−$383Yes · avg 58¢ → 34¢ · $540+$5Yes · avg 42¢ → 42¢ · $425
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -11.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-11.0 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$102.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$20.4k
Last 30 days +$86 · $19.59M volume · 7,257 trades · since Jun 23, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$3,250
Open P&L · 133 positions
−$17.6k
Closed-position win rate
73%
398 closed
Wallet age · markets
1219d
517 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 1 | 1.4 | -11.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | LOW SELL No @ 80¢ | $22.6k | called |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 74¢ | $18.4k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 65¢ | $35.7k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 37¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 37¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x183a2a…