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+$2,250No · avg 84¢ → 95.2¢ · $19.0k−$1,275Yes · avg 14¢ → 1.2¢ · $125−$895Yes · avg 10¢ → 1.1¢ · $105−$738Yes · avg 20¢ → 1.6¢ · $62−$168Yes · avg 26¢ → 3.4¢ · $25−$181Yes · avg 20¢ → 1.5¢ · $14
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did -11.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-11.6 pts
Called / graded
3/10
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$439.0k
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$140k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Cavaliers vs. Bucks at 42¢) and the edge is -19.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 31% · n=4
40–60¢
50% vs 48% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$806.4k
Last 30 days −$678 · $47.36M volume · 35,200 trades · since Dec 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$8.63M
Open P&L · 275 positions
−$7.81M
Closed-position win rate
85%
304 closed
Wallet age · markets
305d
573 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 3 | 4.2 | -11.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Magic @ 42¢ | $42.0k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 85¢ | $79.9k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Clippers vs. Warriors | LOW BUY Warriors @ 48¢ | $36.0k | missed |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Celtics @ 56¢ | $13.9k | called |
| Spread: Clippers (-8.5) | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 50¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Rockets vs. Heat | LOW BUY Rockets @ 56¢ | $22.2k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | MED BUY Nuggets @ 30¢ | $28.7k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Magic | LOW BUY Rockets @ 57¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 30¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 42¢ | $33.6k | called |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Warriors @ 34¢ | $68.0k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Rockets (-7.5) | LOW BUY Clippers @ 44¢ | $20.2k | called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $22.4k | missed |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Rams @ 44¢ | $35.2k | missed |
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