Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$356
Return on staked
-35.6%
Bets
3/10 won
Edge vs price
-11.6 pts ±15.3
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +0.8 pts (2/5). Newer half: -24.0 pts (1/5). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 25, 14:18 ESTMar 02, 17:09 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clippers vs. Warriors | 48¢ | missed | 236d ago |
| Celtics vs. Bucks | 56¢ | called | 236d ago |
| Rockets vs. Heat | 56¢ | missed | 238d ago |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | 30¢ | missed | 238d ago |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | 30¢ | missed | 241d ago |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | 42¢ | called | 241d ago |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | 34¢ | missed | 255d ago |
| Spread: Rockets (-7.5) | 44¢ | called | 256d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | 32¢ | missed | 258d ago |
| Rams vs. Seahawks | 44¢ | missed | 272d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.