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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +1.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+1.3 pts
Called / graded
4/7
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$819.6k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$4k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Seahawks vs. Patriots at 68¢) and the edge is -3.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 16% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 44% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 72% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$537.3k
Last 30 days −$84 · $28.00M volume · 9,492 trades · since Aug 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.71M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$4.20M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
444d
3204 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 4 | 3.9 | +1.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Pelicans vs. Lakers | MED BUY Pelicans @ 25¢ | $29.2k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz | LOW BUY Jazz @ 16¢ | $22.7k | missed |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 70¢ | $50.1k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Clippers | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 74¢ | $192.6k 6.4× usual |
excluded |
| Heat vs. 76ers | LOW BUY 76ers @ 55¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 66¢ | $16.8k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 79¢ | $147.4k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-10.5) | MED BUY Thunder @ 50¢ | $53.7k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $150.4k 5.0× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Spurs @ 71¢ | $13.3k | called |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | MED BUY Spurs @ 69¢ | $54.3k | called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $21.4k | called |
 Predators vs. Capitals | LOW BUY Predators @ 40¢ | $31.1k | missed |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $24.5k | missed |
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